基于等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型的互联网用户人数预测研究  

Research on Internet Users Number Prediction Based on Equal Dimension and New Information Grey Markov Model

作　　者：赵玲[1,2] 许宏科[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安邮电大学通信与信息工程学院,西安710121 [2]长安大学电子与控制工程学院,西安710064

出　　处：《计算机科学》2013年第4期119-121,151,共4页Computer Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(60804049);陕西省教育厅自然科学基金项目(11JK0897)资助

摘　　要：对互联网用户人数的科学预测可为网络的建设和管理提供决策依据。在传统灰色预测模型的基础上,结合新信息优先的思想,建立了等维新息灰色预测模型,并利用马尔可夫链模型预测出结果的波动范围,形成等维新息灰色马尔可夫预测模型。再以2007年12月-2012年06月我国互联网上网人数实测值为原始数据,构建预测模型,预测2012年12-2014年06月的互联网上网人数。实例结果表明,等维新息灰色马尔可夫预测模型其预测结果的误差更小,精度更高,还能提供预测结果的波动范围及出现概率。The scientific prediction of Internet users can provide the basis for decision-making for the construction and management of the network. Equal dimension and new information grey Markov forecasting model was established based on the traditional grey forecasting model, and Markov chain forecasting model was taken to predict the fluctuation range of the forecasting results, to form the equal dimensional and new information grey Markov forecasting model. Then, the number of Internet users from December 2007 to June 2012 was taken as original data to establish forecasting model to predict the number of Internet users from December 2012 to June 2014. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the equal dimensional and new information grey Markov forecasting model has fewer errors and better fore- casting precision in comparison with the grey model, and it can provide the fluctuation range and the probability of the predicted results.

关 键 词：因特网 用户预测 灰色马尔可夫模型 等维新息 预测精度 

分 类 号：TP302[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]