气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述  

Studies for Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources

作　　者：李峰平[1,2] 章光新[1] 董李勤[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春130102 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第4期457-464,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428404)资助

摘　　要：以全球变暖为主的气候变化已成为当前世界最重要的环境问题之一。气候变化对水循环与水资源影响的研究越来越引起国内外学者的的高度关注和重视。简要回顾了国内外气候变化对水文水资源影响研究的发展历程,着重论述了目前气候变化对水文水资源影响的重点研究领域:水循环要素变化的检测与归因分析、气候变化与人类活动对水循环与水资源影响的定量评估、未来气候变化情景下水循环与水资源的演变趋势预估、气候变化对极端水文事件的影响研究和应对气候变化的水资源适应性管理策略;并介绍了气候变化对水文水资源影响研究中的气候变化情景、水文模拟及陆-气模型耦合等重要技术手段。最后,针对目前研究中存在的问题及薄弱环节,提出未来研究的发展趋势和亟需解决的关键问题。Climate change characterized by global warming has become one of the world＇ s most important environmental issues, Its impact on hydrology and water resources has attracted more and more concern from international scholars. This article briefly reviews the development of studies for impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources, and then focuses on the key fields in the studies： analysis of variation trends in runoff and related driving forces, quantitative assessment for climate change and human activities impact on water resources, watershed modeling to assess impact of potential climate change on hydrology and water resources, study of extreme hydrologic events under climate change scenarios, and adaptation strategy for climate change impact on water resources. It also introduces the important techniques in the related studies, including hydrologic simulation, future climate change scenarios, and connection of hydrological model with climatic model. Finally, it raises problems and weakness in study and puts forward some suggestions, including development trends of future research and key problems to be solved.

关 键 词：气候变化 水循环与水资源 气候变化情景 水文模拟 陆-气模型耦合 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P339[天文地球—水文科学]