塔河流域枯水流量概率特征及成因与影响研究  

Probability Behaviors of the Low Flow of the Tarim River Basin:Possible Causes and Implications

作　　者：张强[1,2] 孙鹏[1,2] 白云岗[3] 张江辉 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830049

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第4期465-472,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：水利部公益项目(201001066);新疆自治区科技攻关项目(200931105);国家自然科学基金项目(41071020;50839005);新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助

摘　　要：选用11种概率分布函数和单参数二维阿基米德族Copula函数,系统分析了塔里木河流域(简称塔河流域)8个水文站最小连续7日平均流量。研究结果表明:①韦克比函数最适合描述塔河流域枯水径流的概率特征;②1987年以后重现期较短的干旱发生频率降低,而重现期较长的干旱事件发生概率增加,主要是由于气候的季节变化及各河流流量的补给类型不同,从而对塔河枯水流量有一定影响;一般来讲,春季气温对枯水的影响要大于降水变化对枯水的影响;③叶尔羌河、阿克苏河等流域水文干旱联合重现期和同现期变化基本一致;开都河流域发生干旱概率要小于叶尔羌河和阿克苏两流域,而开都河流域同时发生干旱的概率大于叶尔羌河和阿克苏河,3个流域重现期短的干旱遭遇概率较大。研究表明,气候变化并没有从根本上改变新疆旱灾情况,同时,由于耕地面积、人口等的增长,水资源需求量增加,在水资源供需方面仍存在非常尖锐的矛盾。In this article, 11 probability distribution functions and two dimensional Archimedes Copula function are adopted to systematically analyze the probability behaviors of the 7-day low flow regimes （the minimum average flow for the consecutive 7 days） at eight hydrological stations located in the Tarim River Basin. The L-moment technique is used to estimate the parameters of the probability functions and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method （K-S） is accepted to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the probability functions. Possible causes and implications of low flow changes are analysis. The results show that： 1） Wake distribution is the candidate distribution function with the highest goodness-of-fit in the study of the extreme flow regimes over the Poyang Lake basin; 2） Climate changes after 1987 has reduced the frequency of drought of low return peri- od. While Climate changes after 1987 has not reduced the frequency of drought of high return period in some stations, which is caused by climate seasonal changes and type of river supplies. Moreover, the temperature impact of low flow is greater than the rain in the spring. 3） The changes of joint return period and return period in the Aksu River are same with the changes in the Yarkand River. However, drought frequency in the Kaidu River is less than the Aksu River and the Yarkand River. While frequency of drought occurred in the same time in tributary of the Kaidu River is more than the Aksu River and the Yarkand River. Because the population and cultivate areas increase fast, climate change have not basically changed the drought in the Tarim River Basin.

关 键 词：频率分析 概率分布函数 COPULA函数 枯水流量 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：F512.2[经济管理—产业经济]