1993—2011年日照市3种重点传染病发病率变化趋势分析  

Analysis on the incidence trend of three major infectious diseases in Rizhao in 1993-2011

作　　者：宋传锋[1] 王燕霞[2] 程自科[3] 

机构地区：[1]日照市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科,山东276826 [2]章丘市人民医院 [3]滨州市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《社区医学杂志》2013年第8期26-27,共2页Journal Of Community Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析日照市1993—2011年甲型肝炎、痢疾、流行性出血热3种重点传染病发病率的变化趋势和规律。方法 2012年7月通过逐年计算传染病发病率,采用线性回归分析方法,用平均增长速度、年度变化百分比统计指标分析变化趋势和规律。采用线性回归分析,计算出相关系数,P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果甲型肝炎、痢疾、流行性出血热19年间的平均增长速度分别为-0.1702,-0.09,-0.10;年度变化速率分别为-51.2,-47.1,-270,比较均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论日照市的甲型肝炎、痢疾、流行性出血热几种重点传染病发病率呈明显下降趋势,说明实施的针对性预防控制措施产生了积极作用,未来应继续保持防控措施,将发病率控制在低水平。Objective This study was designed to analyze the incidence trend of three major infectious diseases including hepatitis A, dysentery and epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Rizhao during the period 1993 -2011, Methods The incidence of infectious disease was calculated annually from July 2012. Linear regression analysis method was applied to analyze the trend, together with the statistical indicators of average increasing rate（AIR） and annual percent change （APC）. Using a linear regression anakysis to calculate the cowe lation coefficient, the resultof P 〈 0. 05was considered to be statistically significant. Results The AIR of hepatitis A, dysentery and epidemic hemorrhagic fever in the 19 years were -0. 1702, - 0.09, -0.10 respectively, and the APC were -51.2, -47.1, -270 respectively,the differences were statistically significant （alP 〈 0. 05）. Conclusions The incidence of three major infectious diseases shows an obvious decreasing trend, proving that the measures taken in.the past have played an active role in disease prevention and control. Prevention and control measures should be continued in future to control the incidence at a low level. ＂

关 键 词：甲型肝炎 痢疾 流行性出血热 传染病 变化趋势 年度变化百分比 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]