三峡水库蓄水前后点源污染物的排放比较及预测  

Comparison and Forecast of Nutrient Emissions from Point Sources in the Three Gorges Region

作　　者：胡响玲[1] 黄钰铃[1] 杨正健[2] 张平[1] 刘德富[3] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]武汉大学,武汉430000 [3]湖北工业大学,武汉430068

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2013年第4期13-16,19,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51179095);国家自然科学基金青年基金(51009080;51009081;51209123)

摘　　要：为探明三峡库区点源污染排放情况,分析1997-2010年三峡库区排放的点源营养盐变化规律,建立三峡库区点源营养盐排放模型,并预测2020年三峡库区点源氮、磷排放情况。结果表明:蓄水后三峡库区污废水排放量大幅增加,其中2008年生活污水排量是2003年水库蓄水之初的2.39倍;污废水中生活污水比例由2003年40.54%增加到2010年的66.58%,工业废水所占比例相应降低。点源营养盐排放模型拟合结果显示,在99%的置信度上,氮、磷模型的R2值分别达到0.832及0.82,以此模型预测2020年三峡库区点源氮、磷排放量分别达63 244.49t和10 436.2t。分析结果进一步发现,库区内点源污染治理的重点区域是重庆主城区,点源污染控制目标是库区城市污水排放。The amount of nutrient （mainly referred to as nitrogen, N and phosphorus, P） emissions from point sources in the Three Gorges Region is calculated during the period of 1997 to 2010, on the basis of which, the models for forecasting the nutrient emissions are presented. The results show that the amount of wastewater discharge rises quickly after the impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir. The amount of domestic sewage discharge in 2008 is as 2. 39 times as that in 2003. The proportion of domestic sewage discharge rises from 40. 54 % in 2003 to be 66.58~ in 2010, in comparison, the proportion of wastewater from industries decreases. The fitting of forecast models for nutrient emissions from point sources indicates that when the confidence interval is 99%, the determination coefficients are 0. 832 and 0. 82 for nitrogen and phosphor, respectively. The models are used to forecast the emissions for nitrogen and phosphor from point sources in 2020, which shows that the emission is 63 244. 49 and 10 436. 2 tons, respectively. Moreover, it is shown that Chongqing City should be the key area for controlling the nutrient emissions from point sources in the Three Gorges Region, meanwhile, the control objective for nutrient emissions from point sources is domestic sewage.

关 键 词：三峡库区 点源营养盐 排放 预测 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]