基于CREAM的飞机发动机孔探检测失效概率预测  

Failure probability prediction on the aircraft engine borescope inspection based on CREAM

作　　者：李丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2013年第2期248-251,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31200793);天津市高等学校科技发展基金计划项目(20100412)

摘　　要：为了有效地对发动机孔探检测失效概率进行分析和预测,在分析飞机发动机孔探检测主要操作步骤的基础上,将认知可靠性和失误分析方法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM)引入飞机发动机孔探检测人员的失效概率预测中,建立了该方法的实施体系。利用该体系,通过对孔探检测特点、特定情景下共同绩效条件因子及CREAM各认知功能失效概率统计的分析,确定了维修人员在孔探检测中所需的认知功能(观察、解释、执行)、常见的失效模式(诊断失败、错误辨识、动作方式错误),及特定情景下的认知控制模式、失效概率区间及具体值。The paper aims to report our study on the failure probability prediction of the aircraft engine borescope inspection based on the cognitive reliability and error analysis method （CREAM）. As is known, aircraft engine borescope inspection has long been a practice in aviation maintenance. In doing such inspections, key factors that may affect the results of borescope inspection are the quality of the repair and maintenance staff, the working environment, the equipment management, the technical data and so on. Inappropriate inspection and maintenance are likely to cause serious consequences and huge economic losses. Therefore, it is important to analyze and forecast the failure probability of engine borescope inspection timely, scientifically and effectively. However, reference literatures can hardly be found on how to raise the reliability of maintenance staff and improve on the failure probability prediction at home. As a method, CREAM keeps stressing the impact of the environment and working conditions on the performance and behavior of the staff members and discussing the mechanism and probability of human error from the point of view of cognitive psychology. For this actual need, CREAM has been introduced into the failure probability study of aircraft engine borescope inspection innovatively in strict correspondence with the characteristic features of the aircraft engine borescope inspection practice as well as the psychological and cognitive activities of the inspection workers. Starting from this urgent need, we have established the corresponding implementation system of the inspection with the corresponding operation steps. Based on the analysis of the cognitive activities and cognitive functions, we have defined the general performance conditions and weights in accordance with the actual situation of the inspection practice. On the basis of the analysis of the borescope inspection features, it is necessary to make clear the cognitive functions, including observation, interpretation, and implementation of

关 键 词：安全管理工程 CREAM 孔探检测 失效概率 预测 

分 类 号：X928.9[环境科学与工程—安全科学]