变风向条件下事故泄漏扩散后果预测方法改进  

A renovated method for forecasting the consequences of the accidents by using the wind-changing direction with the time

作　　者：李悦[1] 程水源[1] 陈东升[1] 黄青[2] 唐晓兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学环境与能源工程学院,北京100124 [2]暨南大学理工学院环境工程系,广州510632

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2013年第2期270-276,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51038001);国家环保公益性行业科研专项(200909008;201209003)

摘　　要：提出了一种基于实时变化风向条件的危险气体快速扩散预测方法的构建思路。基于国内外研究成果,提出了SLAB等模式的扩散过程中风向不变的不合理假设的改进方法,使其能够在真实的实时变化风向条件下进行预测,并提出利用气象模式为扩散计算提供事故后风向预测结果的方法,同时在SLAB中增加了适用于危险扩散模式源强参数计算的排放量估算功能,最终对高时空分辨率气象模式、危险物排放量估算方法和专业危险事故扩散模式进行耦合集成,建立了新的扩散预测方法,实现了对不同类型危险源事故后多种常见毒性气体三维扩散范围及浓度分布的快速预测。案例分析结果表明,该改进方法的理念比原有方法更符合真实情况,使用更加方便快捷。The paper aims to introduce a renovated method for forecasting the consequences of the accidents by using the wind-direction variation with the time. In this paper, we have put forward an improved method based on the widely used SLAB model, which wrongly believes that there does not exist wind direction change in the process of hazardous gas dispersion. In our model, we have made three major improvements helpful for enhancing the power of the model in representing the observation facts and make it more applicable than the original SLAB. First of all, our improved model takes into account the variation of the wind vectors when doing the prediction while keeping the advantages of SLAB. Thus the new approach enables the model to reflect the real-time changes in the wind direction during the dispersion forecast. With the help of the method, the entire gas diffusion process can be divided into a few time intervals, which are convenient for integrating all the diffusion results of the calculation by using the corresponding real-time wind registrations during the whole observation process. In addition, we have adopted the algorithms of the coordinating rotation and the coordinating translation in SLAB to the forecasting activities by using the corresponding real-time wind directions with the real-time wind strength to be provided via a meteorological model （WRF）. At the same time, we have coupled the dispersion model and the meteorological model by using a chained program, whose main techniques are preparing for the SHELL script programming and FTP transportation. And, secondly, we have worked out a source term module and embedded it in the dispersion model to standardize the procedure of the emission calculation based on some results of the related calculations. This sub-model can be used to calculate the source emission rate and the related parameters for the dispersion. In our paper, we have also developed some calculation formulas based on the various release forms, including the gas jet, liquid jet, two phases

关 键 词：安全科学技术基础学科 事故后果预测 变化风向 排放量估算 

分 类 号：X923[环境科学与工程—安全科学]