Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield  

作　　者：JU Hui LIN Er-da Tim Wheeler Andrew Challinor JIANG Shuai 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences [2]Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment & Climate Change,Ministry of Agriculture [3]Walker Institute for Climate System Research,Department of Agriculture,University of Reading [4]Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science,School of Earth and Environment,The University of Leeds

出　　处：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》2013年第5期892-902,共11页农业科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：funded by the National 973 Program of China (2012CB955904);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31171452);the Sustainable Agriculture Innovation Network initiated and funded by Defra UK and Minstry of Agriculture of China (H5105000)

摘　　要：Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

关 键 词：climate change MODELLING crop yield IMPACTS China 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]