四川芦山M_s 7.0级地震灾情快速评估与反思  

Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Disaster and Rethink of M_s 7.0 Lushan Earthquake

作　　者：李志锋[1,2] 吴立新[1,2,3] 王然[4] 王秋玲[1,2] 郑硕[1,2] 许志华[1,2] 李京[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院 [2]北京师范大学,北京100875 [3]中国矿业大学(徐州)环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州221008 [4]中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《科技导报》2013年第12期31-36,共6页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2011CB707102);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(105565GK)

摘　　要：在四川芦山Ms 7.0级地震震后第一时间启动了灾情快速评估,对地震烈度图、受灾人口分布及比例、房屋倒损分布及比例、伤亡人口分布、道路损毁等灾情进行了演进式4次评估。评估过程充分考虑数据的完备性,从数据不完备情况下的初步定性评估到数据较完备情况下的定量评估,并将第4次评估结果与2013年4月23日民政部公布数据相比:受灾人口评估准确度为95%、房屋倒损评估准确度为73.3%。继玉树地震灾情评估之后,再次验证了本项目组开发的地震灾情快速评估体系(模型、方法、软件)的实用性。分析灾情评估过程中存在的问题,本文对其进行了反思并指明了解决办法和工作方向。We initiated the disaster assessment of Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake immediately after the shocking. The disaster situations including the ratio and distribution of affected population, the ratio of damaged houses, the distribution of casualties and the damaged roads were estimated for four times after seismic intensity was mapped. The whole assessment procedure, referring to the availability of data, was developed from qualitative assessment to quantitative assessment. As compared to the announced data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the accuracy of rapid assessment on affected population was 95%, that of damaged houses was 73.3%. The assessment system, including the models, methods and softwares, was validated to be practical after the successful assessment of Yushu earthquake, 2010. In addition, The problems existed in the assessment were rethought, and the solution and direction of the earthquake situations assessment were also put forward.

关 键 词：灾情演进 快速评估 受灾人口 芦山 Ms7 0级地震 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]