对流参数化影响热带气旋的模拟研究  

Simulation Study on Influence of the Convective Parameterization on Tropical Cyclone Prediction

作　　者：王晨稀[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所/中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室,上海200030

出　　处：《高原气象》2013年第2期468-480,共13页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究项目(2009CB421506);国家自然科学基金项目(40921160381;41075071;40875025)共同资助

摘　　要：利用GRAPES-TCM模式对2008年登陆我国的9个热带气旋(TC)进行了44次试验,分析了积云对流参数化方案Kain-Fritsch(KF)方案与Betts-Miller-Janjic(BMJ)方案对TC预报的影响。结果表明,KF方案预报TC的总体效果要好于BMJ方案,BMJ方案的优势主要体现在对强TC强度的预报。不同的对流参数化方案对TC路径的影响没有明显差异,但对TC强度和降水的影响与TC初始强度有关;不同的对流参数化方案预报的TC强度和降水强度各不相同,但不同方案预报TC强度的差异与TC降水强度的差异基本一致。采用不同的对流参数化方案预报TC强度和降水随着TC初始强度的不同而表现出不同的特点。The cumulus convection process is one of the most important non-adiabatic physical processes in numerical models. The uncertainty of the cumulus convection process in models affects the accurate tropical cyclone（TC） prediction. Different convection parameterization schemes in models may lead to the different TC predictions. To study the influence of two different convection parameterization schemes on TC prediction, the GRAPES-TCM is used to make sensitivity experiments for 44 TC cases. The 44 cases are from the 9 TCs that made landfall China in 2008. The two schemes are Kain Fritsch（KF） and Betts- Miller-Janjic（BMJ）. The experiment results show that the TC overall prediction with KF scheme is better than that with BMJ scheme. The advantage of BMJ scheme is the intensity prediction of strong TC. The influence of the two different schemes on the TC track prediction has no obvious feature. The influence of the two different schemes on the TC intensity prediction and the TC precipitation prediction changes with the TC initial intensity. The difference of the predicted TC intensity with the two schemes is basically consistent with the difference of the predicted TC precipitation intensity with the two schemes. The difference of the simulated convection with the two schemes leads to the difference of the convective precipitation, which leads to the difference of the latent heat. The difference of the latent heat leads to the difference of TC intensity. The initial structure＇s difference of different intensity TCs causes the difference of the trig- gered convection with the same scheme.

关 键 词：热带气旋 对流参数化 TC强度 降水强度 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]