近138年上海地区高温热浪事件分析  

Analyses on the Heat Wave Events in Shanghai in Recent 138 Years

作　　者：陈敏[1] 耿福海[1] 马雷鸣[2] 周伟东[1] 施红[1] 马井会[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市城市环境气象中心,上海200135 [2]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《高原气象》2013年第2期597-607,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业专项(GYHY201206027);上海市科学技术委员会科研计划项目(11DZ2260900)共同资助

摘　　要：深入了解特大城市高温热浪的变化特征和发生条件对于科学防御其引发的灾害具有重要的实际意义。根据中国气象局高温日和高温预警信号阈值定义了上海地区高温热浪三级标准,并引入高温有效积温,基于1873-2010年上海市徐家汇站日最高气温资料分析了上海地区高温热浪的多尺度时频特征;基于环流指数和NCEP再分析资料,探讨了上海地区高温热浪异常偏强年的大气环流异常特征。结果表明:(1)将高温有效积温与高温热浪发生频次结合,可更合理地表征高温热浪的炎热程度。(2)近138年来上海共发生214次高温热浪事件,其平均高温有效积温为8.3℃,7月高温热浪发生频次和高温有效积温均多于8月。(3)近138年来上海地区高温热浪有三段持续偏多与偏强期:19世纪90年代初至19世纪末、20世纪20年代末至50年代初、80年代末尤其是21世纪初以来;最强的高温热浪事件出现在1934年;而21世纪初的10年,其炎热程度正呈明显上升趋势。(4)上海地区高温热浪异常偏强年的主要环流特征是夏季北半球副热带高压异常偏强、西太平洋副热带高压异常偏西和印缅槽异常偏弱,如高温热浪异常偏强年夏季平均的西太平洋副热带高压西伸脊点伸展至我国东南沿海约122°E附近,而低纬地区印度半岛至孟加拉湾的低槽区基本消失。Better understanding on the characteristics of heat wave evolution and occurrence is very important for prevention of its associated disasters. Based on three criterions of the heat wave events, defined according to the threshold of high temperature and warning signal of China Meteorology Administration, the effective accumulated high temperature （EAHT）, the maximum temperature of Xujiahui of Shanghai, China during 1873-2010, the multi-scale time-frequency characteristics of the heat wave events in Shanghai is examined. Moreover, the NCEP reanalysis data and the circulation indices of NCC are further employed for analysis of the average atmospheric circulation anomaly. The major results are： （1） The EAHT and occurrence frequency of heat waves can be jointly used for reasonable representation of heat wave-in- duced hot weather. （2） There are totally 214 heat wave events in Shanghai in the recent 138 years with the average EAHT of 8.3 ℃, and July is more warm than August. （3） There are three major periods when the occurrence frequency and intensity of the heat wave events and EAHT are evidently more than normal, i. e. , early 1890s to the end of the century, late 1920s to early 1950s, since the early 1980s especially in the 21s1 century. The most intensive heat wave occurred in the year of 1934; the frequency of heat wave-induced hot weather increases significantly during the last 10 years. （4） The large scale circulation related to the abnormal partial strong heat wave are mainly featured by the abnormal intensive summer subtropical high over the north hemisphere, the west-drifted west Pacific subtropical high （e. g. , 122°E）, and the much weakened India-Burma trough compared to the average 1951-2010 years.

关 键 词：高温热浪 高温有效积温 多尺度时频特征 大气环流异常 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]