碳排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证研究  

Empirical Analysis on the Relation of Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

作　　者：陈真玲[1] 王光辉[1] 杨多贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2013年第1期71-76,共6页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJDZONGHE015)

摘　　要：从经济增长与资源环境的关系入手,构建经济增长、能源消费和碳排放的向量自回归模型(VAR),运用脉冲响应函数研究三个变量之间的相互关系,并分别建立能源消费和二氧化碳排放为自变量的协整方程,结果表明:经济增长与能源消费和碳排放具有长期的协整关系,经济增长每提高1%,能源消费增长增加0.240%,同时导致二氧化碳排放增加0.295%。这说明我国的高速经济增长过程中,付出了较大的资源环境自然代价。In this study, we chose the relationship between the economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption as the breakthrough point, and triedto establish vector autoregressive model （VAR）, and analyzed the relationship between the three variables by the impulse response function.Co-integration equation was establishedin this study in which the independent variable was the energy consumption and carbon dioxide separately. We could obtain an important conclusion： there existing a long-term co-integration relationship among the economic growth and energy consumption and environmental pollution. Specifically, the energy consumption could increase 0.24% when the economic growth increased byl%, and which led to a 0,295% increase in carbon dioxide emissions. This showedthat China hadpaid a relatively high resources environment cost because of the high-speed economic growth.

关 键 词：经济增长 碳排放 向量自回归(VAR) 模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F224