多模式气候预估对华北冬小麦产量模拟的不确定性分析  

Uncertainty of ensemble winter wheat yield simulation in North China based on CMIP5

作　　者：杨绚[1] 汤绪[2] 陈葆德 谭燕 田展[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]上海市气象局,上海200030 [3]上海市台风所,上海200030 [4]上海市气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2013年第4期627-636,共10页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40921140410);上海市科委项目(10231203700);上海市气象局科研项目(YJ201204);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX12_0495)

摘　　要：基于CMIP5的多模式气候预估资料,应用集合方法,评估了未来中国华北地区冬小麦产量受气候变化影响的不确定性,并给出未来中国华北冬小麦增产或减产可能的概率。利用CMIP5的15个全球气候模式2006-2030年4种排放情景的54组逐日气候预估结果,运用CERES-Wheat模型模拟了未来华北地区冬小麦的产量。结果表明,气温的预估结果较好,降水量和太阳辐射的气候预估值的不确定性较大。河北、山东和河南的3个代表点小麦产量的模拟集合表明,未来冬小麦产量年际波动较大,以弱增产的概率为主,但是随气候变化的冬小麦产量的低产概率明显上升。最后本文还给出了2011-2030年间华北地区冬小麦产量不同等级的概率分布。The uncertainty of the influence of climate change on the North China＇s winter wheat yield is estimated by using the ensemble climate projections of CMIP5 and the probability of increase or reduction of the wheat yield in main production areas is analyzed. We combined 54 runs of projections from 15 global climate models of CMIP5 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2006-2030. Meanwhile, the CERES-Wheat was employed to stimulate the North China＇s winter wheat yield in the future. The results indicate that the projection of precipitation and solar radiation in future climate by the climate models has the largest uncertainty. Take the three representative points as an example： although in some years the yield will increases slightly, the fluctuation of winter wheat yield from year to year can be significant. An increased risk of lower yield is inevitable. And the probabilistic distributions of winter wheat yield in Middle and Eastern China during 2011-2030 over 2000, 4000, 6000, 8000, and 10000 kg/hm^2 are elaborated.

关 键 词：概率分布 不确定性 冬小麦 CMIP5模式评估 华北 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]