基于逐时温湿度的小麦白粉病指标与模型  

Indices and modeling of wheat powdery mildew epidemic based on hourly air temperature and humidity data

作　　者：姚树然[1,2] 霍治国[3] 董占强[4] 李敏[4] 陈晓静 

机构地区：[1]河北省气象科学研究所,石家庄050021 [2]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,石家庄050021 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [4]邯郸市气象局,河北邯郸056001 [5]邯郸县植保植检站,河北邯郸056000

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2013年第5期1364-1370,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家公益性(气象)科研专项经费项目(GYHY201006026);河北省气象局集约基金项目(2011tc06)资助

摘　　要：为了探索小麦白粉病发生流行与气象条件的动态关系,选择小麦感病品种,在河北省典型麦田安装冠层温湿度监测仪进行观测试验,同时进行大气温湿度的对比观测,得到田间冠层和大气逐时温湿度与白粉病系统调查病情资料,通过分析小麦白粉病流行速度与冠层、大气温湿度及其日变化的关系,提出了"日界限温度累计时"概念,建立了冠层与大气两种尺度白粉病流行速度的温湿度气象等级指标,并建立了基于冠层与大气两种尺度短临温湿度及其日变化的白粉病流行速度预测模型。利用所建指标进行2009年、2010年回代检验,符合率分别为67%、84%,2012年实际测报,符合率为87%;所建立的预测模型综合预报准确率达88%。本文所建立的指标与模型可用于小麦白粉病发生流行的动态监测预警和评估,同时为小麦白粉病气象深入研究提供线索和开拓思路。In order to explore the dynamic relations between wheat powdery epidemic and meteor- ological conditions, the hourly canopy air temperature and humidity in a representative winter wheat field were measured by a field monitoring system in the wheat powdery mildew season in 2010-2012. Meanwhile, the daily wheat powdery mildew density was also investigated in the same field. By using these measured data and the standard weather station data, the correlations of the wheat powdery mildew epidemic speed with the canopy＇ s and ambient air temperature and humidity and their diurnal variations up to five days ahead of the powdery mildew epidemic were analyzed. The conception of ＇daily accumulated critical high air temperature hours＇ was pro- posed to present the favorability of weather conditions to powdery mildew epidemic speed, and a set of meteorological grade indices was developed to classify the wheat powdery mildew epidemic speed. The powdery mildew epidemic forecast model based on the relationship analysis of air temperature and humidity was established, with the validation accuracy of 88%. The validation accuracy of the indices in 2009 and 2010 was 67% and 84%, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy in 2012 was 87%. It was suggested that the established meteorological grade indices and forecast model were applicable to the monitoring, forecasting, and assessment of winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic. This study could provide references to the plant pathology research and crop epidemics forecast.

关 键 词：冠层温湿度 大气温湿度 气象等级指标 日界限温度累计时 

分 类 号：S435.121[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]