电网规划方案决策的概率灵敏度分析  

Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Decision-making of Power Grid Expansion Planning

作　　者：陈光[1] 林振智[1] 周浩[1] 施纪栋[1] 孙可[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]浙江省电力公司,浙江省杭州市310007

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2013年第9期41-46,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A105)~~

摘　　要：电网规划方案决策中的不确定因素越来越多,有必要研究决策结果在不确定环境下的灵敏度。为此,将基于概率统计理论的不确定模型和方法引入决策的灵敏度分析中,构建了电网规划方案决策的概率灵敏度分析指标和指标计算方法,定量计算指标值和指标权重不确定性对决策结果中电网规划方案排序不变性的影响,采用Monte Carlo模拟分析了不确定因素对方案最优性的综合影响。最后,基于实际决策案例说明了所提出方法的合理性和适应性。As more and more uncertainties have emerged in the decision-making of power grid expansion planning, it is necessary to develop new models to analyze the sensitivity of the decision-making results. A series of probabilistic sensitivity analysis models for decision-making of power grid expansion planning is proposed. Considering the uncertainty of criterion values, criterion weights and plan rankings, different models and calculating methods are developed. The impact of criterion values and weights on ranking sequence of candidate plans is quantitatively calculated using the Monte Carlo method. An actual case study is given to demonstrate the rationality and adaptability of the models proposed in coping with uncertain factors in different decision-making environments. This work is supported by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China （863 Program） （No. 2011AA05A105）.

关 键 词：灵敏度分析 电网规划 方案决策 不确定性 概率模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]