空域窗射击毁歼概率解析计算模型  

Analytical Model of Kill Probability of Future Airspace Window Shooting

作　　者：刘恒[1] 梅卫[1] 单甘霖[1] 

机构地区：[1]军械工程学院,石家庄050003

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2013年第4期130-132,136,共4页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国防"十一五"预研基金资助项目(40405020204)

摘　　要：为提高未来空域窗射击技术对空中机动目标的毁伤概率,需要根据目标机动幅度对未来空域窗的大小进行动态设定,故提出"自适应射击窗"的概念。空域窗大小设定的依据是使毁歼概率最优。可以采用解析法来在线计算该毁歼概率值。在分析空域窗射击误差的基础上,演绎了均匀分布法与高斯和法两种毁歼概率解析计算方法的公式。以毁歼概率蒙特卡罗法仿真数据为基准值,对两种解析法的计算精度进行了对比分析。仿真结果表明,高斯和法的计算精度显著优于均匀分布法,且满足实时计算要求,适于在线评估空域窗的射击效能。In order to improve the probability of future airspace window （FAW） for killing the maneuver air target, the kill probability of FAW should be online evaluated by analytical solution which is used to enact the radius of FAW dynamically, namely, it is called ＇adaptive shooting window＇. After analyzing the shooting error of this system, the formulary of uniform distribution method and Gaussian summation method for calculating the kill probability are also present. The precision in calculation of the two methods are compared by the Monte-Carlo simulation data. Simulation results show that, comparing with the uniform distribution method, the Gaussian summation method has higher precision, and fulfils online calculation requirements, so it can be used to evaluate the efficiency of FAW.

关 键 词：未来空域窗 毁歼概率 解析法 蒙特卡罗法 

分 类 号：TP271[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]