水库汛末超蓄调度方式研究  

Study on reservoir over-storage at late stage of flood season

作　　者：李林峰[1] 陈守伦[1] 戴建炜 朱江 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [2]贵州乌江水电开发有限责任公司,贵阳550002

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2013年第2期74-77,共4页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益事业科研专项经费(201001016)

摘　　要：汛末拦蓄洪尾超蓄是充分利用洪水资源的有效手段。通过分析汛末最大洪水规律,可为汛末水库超蓄提供理论支持。在假定汛末最大洪水发生时间的分布符合Von Mises分布拟合,汛末最大洪水分布符合P-Ⅲ型分布的基础上,利用Gumbel Archimedean Copula函数分析二者的联合分布,计算在汛末特定时间段内遭遇某量级的汛末最大洪水的组合概率。同时分析水库下泄能力,计算了从特征超蓄水位回到汛限水位的最短下泄时间,并与洪水预报有效预见期做比较,可依据不同的洪水预报有效预见期选择安全超蓄的水位范围。实例计算表明,该种方法具有实用价值。Reservoir over-storage at the late stage of flood season is an effective approach to utilization of flood resources,and an analysis on the pattern of maximal flood occurring at this stage could give a theoretical support to the over-storage decision.For an event of a certain peak flood occurring with a given time period,we calculated its joint probability and the risk by using a Gumbel Archimedean Copula function for the joint distribution and assuming a Von Mises distribution for occurring time and a Pearson-Ⅲ distribution for peak magnitude.We also calculated the shortest discharging time required to lower the level of over-storage back to the limited water level,and compared it with the flood-forecast lead time.Thus,the level of over-storage can be decided.An example is also presented to show the application of this method and its practical significance.

关 键 词：水利管理 超蓄 联合分布概率 VonMises分布 Gumbel ARCHIMEDEAN COPULA函数 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]