福建省长泰上存水库诱发地震可能性分析  

Probability Analysis of Induced Earthquake in ShangCun Reservoir

作　　者：林松建[1] 林锦华[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省地震局,福建福州350005

出　　处：《华南地震》2013年第1期15-25,共11页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：介绍了上存水库库区地质背景、构造应力场、地震活动背景等诱发地震条件。应用诱发地震条件类比与概率预测法,对上存水库进行诱发地震可能性分析。结果表明:①根据水库诱发条件类比分析认为上存水库发生诱发地震的可能性小。②从概率预测和最大诱发地震估算看,上存水库存在发生4级以下诱发地震的可能。极震区地震烈度可能会达到Ⅵ度,尚未达到当地地震基本烈度。水库建设可不用考虑水库诱发地震的影响。This paper described the conditions of reservoir-induced earthquake in the ShangC Reservoir, such as the geological background of the reservoir area, the tectonic stress field and seismic activity background. The possibility of reservoir induced earthquake in the ShangCun Reservoir is analysed by using the methods of the reservoir-induced earthquake conditions analogy analysts and the probabilistic prediction. （1） According to the conditions of reservoir induced earthquake analogy, we believe that the probability of the ShangCun Reservoir inducing earthquake is very smaller. （2） Based on the probability prediction method and maximum induced earthquake estimate, reservoir induce earthquakes below the level of 4 may occur. The seismic intensity in the epicentral area may reach VI degree, but has not yet reached the local basic seismic intensity. The construction of the reservoir could not considered the influence of reservoir induced earthquake.

关 键 词：诱发地震 构造应力场 上存水库 地震活动 

分 类 号：P315.728[天文地球—地震学]