国产消费品安全事故对消费需求的影响分析  

Effect Analysis of China's Local Consumer Product Safety Accidents on Consumption Demand

作　　者：柳思维[1,2] 朱艳春[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]湖南商学院经济与贸易发展研究院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第2期12-19,共8页JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划项目"科技创新与食品市场质量安全监管体系构建研究"(2010GXQ5D349);国家社会科学基金项目"扩大内需视角下城乡流通产业协调发展研究"(10CJY054)

摘　　要：自三聚氰胺事件之后相继发生的一系列国产消费品安全事故,已引起广泛关注。借鉴柯布道格拉斯函数形式构造了一个需求函数理论模型,分析结果表明:国产消费品安全事故会对总消费需求产生挤出效应,导致涉事进口产品结构性替代涉事国产产品。当涉事产品为非刚性需求产品时,涉事产品的需求会被非涉事产品替代;而当其为刚性需求产品时,涉事产品的需求会反向替代非涉事产品。并且,涉事进口产品价格上涨将加剧部分负面影响。对属于刚性需求的婴幼儿奶粉的问卷调查,进一步实证了理论模型的分析结果。Following the melamine accident, a series of safety accidents have occurred to China＇s local consumer products, which has aroused wide public concern. The Cobb-Douglas function is used for reference to construct a theoretic model of demand function. The analytical results show that China＇s local consumer products safety accidents can produce crowding out effect on to- tal consumption demand, which leads to a structural substitution effect that the import goods involved replaces the local product involved. When the involved product is not a rigid demand product involved, the demand for the involved product will be re- placed by the alternative product not involved. When it is a rigid demand product, the demand for the involved product will have a reverse substitution effect on the products not involved. Moreover, the price increase in the involved import goods will exacer- bate the negative effect in part. A questionnaire on infant milk powder with rigid demand is of further empirical proof to the ana- lytical results of theoretic model.

关 键 词：消费品安全事故 替代效应 结构性替代效应 反向替代效应 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F710[经济管理—产业经济]