涡旋初始化对T639模式热带气旋路径预报影响的数值试验  

The Numeric Experiments for the Influence of TC Path Forecastwith T639 Mode by Vortex Initiation

作　　者：吴俞[1] 麻素红[2] 瞿安祥[2] 张永莉[3] 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象台,海南海口570203 [2]中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081 [3]成都信息工程学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程学院学报》2013年第2期181-186,共6页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家973计划资助项目(2009CB421500)

摘　　要：为了探讨涡旋初始化对T639L60模式热带气旋路径预报的影响程度,以1002号台风康森为个例进行数值试验,结果表明:在涡旋初始化中采用新的初始涡旋形成技术,能减小TC路径预报误差;从初始涡旋形成方案中通过改变七级风半径、涡旋外围尺度半径大小参数和有无进行涡旋强度调整方案进行敏感性试验,得到TC路径的预报对TC涡旋外围半径和TC强度较敏感,其路径会因涡旋外围半径大小和其强度的不同而有所差异。In order to discuss the influence degree of vortex initiation to T639L60 mode tropical cyclone path forecast, experiments were done with the No. 1002 typhoon ＂Kang Sen＂, and the result show that the TC path forecast error can be reduced by using the new initiate vortex formation technology; and the conclusion can be drawn that TC path forecast is sensitive to TC vortex outer radius and TC strength, and the path can be varied according to the differences of vortex outer radius and strength hy changing the seven grade wind radius, vortex outer radius value or adjusting the vortex strength from the initiate vortex formation plan.

关 键 词：气象学 数值预报 T639L60模式 热带气旋 涡旋初始化 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]