江苏省冬季气温、降水年代际异常及相关分析  

The interdecadal variations and the correlation analysis of temperature and precipitation during winter in Jiangsu province

作　　者：傅云燕[1,2] 杨修群[1] 沈伟 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210093 [2]江苏省宿迁市气象局,江苏宿迁223800

出　　处：《气象科学》2013年第2期178-183,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：科技部国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB428500)

摘　　要：利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和江苏省冬季气温、降水资料,运用带通滤波、经验正交分解(EOF)和相关分析等方法,分析了江苏省冬季气候年代际异常及同期气温与降水的相关特征。结果表明:江苏省冬季气候的年代际变化具有很好的空间一致性,表现为全省整体偏暖(偏冷)和偏涝(偏旱)的趋势;冬季气候存在明显的年代际突变,时间在1980s中期前后,平均气温从偏冷时期向偏暖时期转换,降水由偏少期向偏多时期转换。通过冬季同期降水和气温的相关分析发现,降水和气温具有一定的正相关性,而他们的年代际分量的正相关性更为显著,这与冬季大气环流场和海温场的年代际变化有密切的关系。Bandpass filter, EOF and relative analysis were applied in this paper to analyze the interdecadal variations and the correlation characteristics of temperature and precipitation during winter in Jiangsu province with the NECP/NCAR reanalysis data, temperature and precipitation data in winter. The results showed that interdecadal variations of the winter climate in Jiangsu were uniform in space, which became warmer（colder） and wetter（arider） as a whole. The significant interdecadal mutation existed around mid 1980s. The average temperature converted from colder spell to the warmer, and the precipitation transformed from arider spell to the wetter. The relative analysis indicated that there was a positive correlation between temperature and precipitation in winter, especially for their interdecadal characteristics, which had a close relationship with the interdecadal variations of the northern hemisphere circulation and sea surface temperature fields.

关 键 词：冬季气温(降水) 带通滤波 经验正交分解 年代际变化 海表温度 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]