河北省经济增长与能源消费的相关关系分析  

The Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in Hebei

作　　者：刘文艳[1] 常敬一[2] 曹耀[3] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄经济学院商学院,河北石家庄050031 [2]河北医科大学第三医院人事处,河北石家庄050051 [3]石家庄经济学院研究生学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《石家庄经济学院学报》2013年第2期47-50,共4页Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics

基　　金：河北省社会科学发展研究课题"‘十二五’河北省矿产资源需求态势及保障供给的关键因素研究"(201103155);河北省软科学研究计划项目"‘十二五’河北省矿产资源需求态势及保障供给的关键因素分析"(12457202D-10)

摘　　要：河北省高能耗重化工产业对稳定经济增长起到基础性作用,然而,以煤炭为主体的能源消费所带来的能源供应保障问题和环境问题日益突出。借鉴时间序列分析理论,利用Granger因果关系检验法分析了经济增长和能源消费之间的因果关系,并对两变量进行了协整分析,检验其是否存在长期均衡关系,在建立能源消费与经济增长的VAR模型基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法研究了河北省经济增长对能源消费的影响。As a big economic province that is marching into a strong economic one, the stable economic development is based on high energy consumption and heavy chemical industries. However, the coal-based energy consumption results in some serious supply problems and the environmental problems. It is necessary to explore the deeper rela- tions between the economic growth and energy consumption of Hebei Province. This study takes Time Series Analy- sis as reference and uses the Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and whether there exists a long-term balanced relationship between economic growth and energy con- sumption is examined by using the co-integration test. On the basis of VAR model of energy consumption and eco- nomic growth, the authors use the methods of impulse response function and Variance Decomposition to study the impact of economic growth on energy consumption of Hebei Province.

关 键 词：河北省 经济增长 能源消费 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]