考虑合成灰数灰度性质的改进区间灰数预测模型  

Improved prediction model of interval grey number based on the characteristics of grey degree of compound grey number

作　　者：王大鹏[1] 汪秉文[1] 李睿凡[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学控制科学与工程系,湖北武汉430074 [2]北京邮电大学计算机学院,北京100876

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2013年第5期1013-1017,共5页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60773190;60802002)资助课题

摘　　要：基于核和灰度的区间灰数预测模型,初步解决了区间灰数序列预测问题,但模型中灰度预测值的确定方法存在不足,且模型不支持误差分析。提出了合成灰数灰度的定义及其性质,据此分析了模型存在的问题,并建立灰度序列的预测模型实现灰度预测,以代替原有模型中灰度预测值的确定方法,从而改进和完善了原有区间灰数预测模型。改进模型从核和灰度两个方面同时发掘区间灰数序列的内蕴信息与发展趋势,克服了原有模型存在的不足,且支持误差分析和精度检验。算例表明了改进模型的有效性和可用性。A prediction model of interval grey number based on kernel and grey degree preliminaryly solves the problem of prediction for interval grey number, while still has some model deficiencies which need to be im- proved in error analysis and the method of determining the predicted value of grey degree of interval grey num- ber. These model deficiencies are analyzed based on the definition and characteristics of compound grey number which are proposed. Furthermore, a prediction model for grey degree is built instead of the original deficient method, thus the original prediction model of interval grey number is improved and perfected. The improved model can excavate both potential information and developing trend of interval grey number list from the aspects of both kernel and grey degree, thus the original model deficiencies are overcome, and error analysis and preci- sion test are supported. Example analysis demonstrates the applicability of the improved model.

关 键 词：区间灰数 预测模型 合成灰数 灰度 

分 类 号：N491.5[自然科学总论]