三标度AHP法在核应急决策中的应用  

Application of Three-scale AHP Method in Nuclear Emergency Decision Making

作　　者：孔衍[1] 陈霁恒[1] 张锦[2] 任鑫[3] 马丽[3] 

机构地区：[1]海军蚌埠士官学校机械系,安徽蚌埠233012 [2]镇江船艇学院船艇动力指挥系,江苏镇江212003 [3]海军医学研究所防护医学研究室,上海200433

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第9期109-114,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：总后勤部科研基金(AWS10B026);海军医学研究所基金资助项目(12HY21)

摘　　要：核事故发生时,采取正确的应急决策可以减轻事故的后果和危害.考虑到核应急决策的多目标性和模糊性,并针对传统AHP法的不足,利用三标度AHP法建立了多层次应急决策评估模型.模型较大程度的减小了评价的主观性,具有操作性强、稳定性好的特点.将模型与模糊层次模型计算结果进行比较,二者对方案的优劣排序是一致的.但模型在对最优方案的取舍上分辨率较高,对核应急决策具有实际的指导意义.When a nuclear accident occurs, a right emergency decision is adopted to alleviate effect and harm of the accident. Given the characteristic of multi-objects and illegibility in nuclear emergency decision, and aimed at the deficiency of the traditional AHP method, three- scale AHP method was used to establish multilayer model for nuclear emergency decision. The model can largely reduce the subjectivity of estimation, and has the characteristic of good manipulation and stability. The calculation results of the model and fuzzy hierarchy model are compared, and the two orders for scheme are identical. However, the model＇s resolving power for the best scheme is higher, which is significant for nuclear emergency decision-making.

关 键 词：核应急 多目标决策 AHP法 三标度 

分 类 号：C931.1[经济管理—管理学] C934