b值和V_4的统计分析及其不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响研究  

Research on the Effects of Statistical Analysis of b-value and V_4 and its Uncertainty on Seismic Risk Analysis Result

作　　者：谢卓娟 吕悦军[1] 兰景岩[1] 徐丹丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085

出　　处：《地震研究》2013年第1期86-92,141,共7页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2013-05)和(ZDJ2010-20)联合资助

摘　　要：以郯庐地震带为研究实例,基于线性最小二乘法回归原理,采用多种组合方案统计得到多个b值与V4组合,选取最佳组合方案,确定郯庐地震带最优b值和V4值;同时使用概率地震危险性分析方法计算每个组合方案不同超越概率水平下的基岩水平峰值加速度,探讨了地震活动性参数b值和V4的不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响程度和规律。本研究方法和结论可供地震活动性分析和地震危险性评价研究时参考,对地震区划和工程场地地震安全性评价均有重要意义。Taking Tan-Lu seismic zone as an example, basing on linear least-squares regression theory, we selected the best combination scheme of b-value and V4 in Tan-Lu seismic region from various combination scheme statis- tics of b-value and V4. In addition, we calculated bedrock horizontal peak acceleration of each combination scheme under different probability of exceedance by probability seismic hazard analysis method, and discussed the influence degree and law of uncertainty of seismic activity parameter b-value and V4 On seismic risk analyze result. The statistical analysis of b-value and I/4 and its uncertainty could be used as the reference of seismic ac- tivity and risk evaluation researches and had important significance for seismic zoning, and seismic safety assess- ment of engineering site.

关 键 词：B值 V4 最小二乘法 地震危险性分析 郯庐地震带 

分 类 号：P315.912[天文地球—地震学]