故障预测模型的评价方法研究  

Study on the Evaluation Methods of a Prognostics Model

作　　者：张慧敏[1,2] 宋东[1] 郭勇[2] 王彦松[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院 [2]中国人民解放军92830部队航空仪器计量站

出　　处：《测控技术》2013年第5期121-124,129,共5页Measurement & Control Technology

摘　　要：在复杂系统健康管理的实现过程中,预测方法、预测模型起着非常重要的作用。评价一个预测模型的性能是对其优选的基本,也是推动故障预测良性发展的动力。为定量比较各种方法的预测效果,必须制定一套切实可行的评价标准体系,以便对预测效果进行科学、全面的衡量和评价。研究并建立了一套性能评价指标体系,并通过对一种基于神经网络的非线性组合预测模型的实例评价,验证了评价指标体系的有效性及适用性。For health management of complex system, prognostics methods and models play a very important role. Therefore, evaluation of a prognostics model performance is fundamental for choosing a suitable model. It is also the driving force to promote the fault prognostics development. In order to compare the effect of various methods, a practical evaluation index system must be established to weigh and evaluate the combination of fore- casts scientifically and comprehensively. A set of performance evaluation index system is researched and built, and through specific examples of evaluation of the non-linear combination forecasting model based on neural network, the effectiveness and applicability of the evaluation index system are verified.

关 键 词：故障预测与健康管理 预测 性能评价指标体系 组合预测模型 

分 类 号：TP206[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]