山东省经济社会发展人口承载力预测  

A Prediction of the Population Carrying Capacity of Shandong Economic and Social Development

作　　者：李新运[1] 任栋[2] 苟延农 董俊丽 张晓青[4] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山东济南250014 [2]山东大学经济研究院,山东济南250100 [3]山东省人口信息中心,山东济南250002 [4]山东师范大学人口.资源与环境学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财政学院学报》2013年第3期70-77,共8页Journal of Shandong Finance Institute

基　　金：山东省软科学计划重大项目"山东经济文化强省建设与人口承载力研究"(2011RKMA011)

摘　　要：为了定量分析山东省在建成全面小康社会和实现基本现代化时经济社会发展的人口承载力,文章通过构建经济社会发展人口承载力指标体系,在对山东省有关单项要素的总量进行预测以及拟定人均占有量标准的基础上,测算届时各要素的人口承载量;对山东省经济社会发展的综合人口承载力进行估算,并对人口承载力的盈余情况进行分析。结果表明:在全面小康社会和基本现代化水平下,山东省经济和社会发展的人口承载力在高方案时均有盈余,但盈余量较少。In order to make a quantitative analysis of the population carrying capacity of the economic and social development when Shandong province realizes the overall well-off society and basic modernization, the paper constructs a population carrying capacity index system, predicts the total value of the individual elements, protocols per capita standard, and estimates the population carrying capacity of various elements based on it. Then the paper estimates the comprehensive population carrying capacity, and analyses the surplus population carrying capacity. The result shows that the population carrying capacity of economic and social development in high programs has a surplus in the overall well-off society and the basic modernization, but the surplus amount is relatively small.

关 键 词：人口承载力 经济社会发展 全面小康社会 基本现代化 预测 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]