我国进口木材检验检疫监管与森林病虫害的关联影响的计量分析  

The econometric analysis about the relation affect between the inspection and quarantine of exotic pests in imported timber and forest pests and diseases

作　　者：张红[1] 刘俊昌[1] 陈文汇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《植物检疫》2013年第3期45-50,共6页Plant Quarantine

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(RW2013-06)

摘　　要：随着我国社会经济的发展,木材等木制品进口量的迅速增加,使得其携带病虫害的可能性增加。这不仅影响我国林业产业发展,森林资源的数量和质量,也影响到我国各类生态系统的安全与发展。通过对进口木材外来病虫害的检验检疫监管,有效控制了外来虫害入境的风险,产生了积极的效益。本文利用我国进口木材检验检疫及森林病虫害发生与防治的相关数据资料,运用回归分析、联立方程模型等方法,对我国进口木材检验检疫监管成效与森林病虫害发生的关联关系进行了分析探讨,得出进口木材量、检疫截获总种次数以及区域林业产业发展等因素对森林病虫害的发生具有显著影响,并得到了具体影响程度。这对于森林病虫害的预警,特别是进口木材检验检疫的结果对于后期森林病虫害发生的具体影响程度的测定、对于制定科学合理的森林病虫害防治措施、降低病虫害防治的相关费用具有十分重要的指导实践作用。Along with our social economy development and rapid growth of imported timber and others wooden packaging products, the likelihood of carrying pests has been increasing. It not only affects forestry industry development and the quantity and quality of forest resources, but also threatens the security and development of all kinds of ecological systems in China. By supervising inspection and quarantine of exotic pests in imported timber, it could effectively control the enter risk of exotic pest, and have many positive benefit. In this paper, the data of inspection and quarantine on imported timber and the data of the occurrence and prevention of forest pests and diseases are applied, combined with the use of regression analysis and simultaneous equation, to discuss the relationship between the effectiveness of inspection and quarantine on imported timber and the occurrence of forest pests and diseases. The conclusion of the study shows that the amount of imported timber, the number of times of inspection and quarantine on exotic pests and diseases, regional development of forestry industry are key factors that have considerable influence on the occurrence of forest pests and diseases, the extent of the influence of these factors is also discussed in this paper. The findings of this paper is helpful to give the early warnings of the happening of forest pests and diseases, emphasizing the importance of the inspection and quarantine on imported timber to the measurement of the potential extent of possible forest pests and diseases. This paper could play a role of guidance in defining scientific and reasonable measures to prevent the forest pests and diseases from happening, lowering the total cost of prevention and control.

关 键 词：进口木材 检验检疫 森林病虫害 计量分析 

分 类 号：S763[农业科学—森林保护学]