条件非线性最优扰动方法在台风“风神”和“凤凰”相互作用过程中的应用研究  

THE APPLICATION OF CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO BINARY TYPHOONS FENGSHEN AND FUNG-WONG

作　　者：王晓雷[1,2] 周菲凡[3] 朱克云[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]武汉市气象局,湖北武汉430040 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2013年第2期235-244,共10页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830955);青年科学基金项目(41105038)资助

摘　　要：利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法,对2002年发生在西太平洋上的台风"风神"和"凤凰"之间的相互作用进行研究。CNOP方法可揭示出"风神"对"凤凰"单向引导作用的过程,表现为若将"凤凰"所在区域作为验证区域,用CNOP方法识别的敏感区主要位于"风神"所在区域,呈现出环绕"风神"的半环状结构;若将"风神"所在区域作为验证区域,则CNOP方法所识别的敏感区主要位于"风神"与副高交界的地方,远离"凤凰"所在的区域,可见,"风神"主要受副高的影响。敏感性试验表明,CNOP所识别的敏感区内误差的发展要大于台风中心周围区域内初始误差的发展,且在全场误差的发展中占有较大的比重,说明CNOP所识别的敏感区对验证区域的预报有较大的影响。The interaction between the typhoons Fengshen and Fung-wong over the Western Pacific in 2002 is studied by the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation（CNOP） method. The study discovered that the CNOP method reveals the process of one-way interaction between Fengshen and Fung-wong. Moreover, if the region of Fung-wong was selected for verification, the sensitivity area was mainly located in the region of Fengshen and presented a half-ring structure; if the region of Fengshen was selected for verification, most of the sensitivity areas were located in the region between the Fengshen and the subtropical high, far away from Fung-wong. This indicated that Fengshen is mainly affected by the subtropical high. The sensitivity experiment showed that the initial errors in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas have larger impacts on the verification-area prediction than those near the typhoon center, and that their developments take a large proportion in the whole domain. This suggests that the CNOP-identified sensitive areas do have large influence on the verification-area prediction.

关 键 词：条件非线性最优扰动 双台风 相互作用 敏感区 预报 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]