浙江省2013年度艾滋病抗病毒治疗药品数量及经费需求预测研究  

Study on prediction of the quantity of antiretroviral drugs and related funding demand in Zhejiang Province in 2013

作　　者：郑锦雷[1] 杨介者[1] 徐云[1] 陈琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省疾病预防控制中心,杭州310051

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2013年第4期271-275,共5页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

基　　金：国家重大科技专项(2008ZX10001-004)~~

摘　　要：目的探讨艾滋病药品需求年度预测方法及其影响因素。方法应用N(下一年度药品计划)=A(下一年度预计正在治疗人数)×B(预计某药物的使用人数构成比)×C(该药物季度使用量)×4个季度×D(1+缓冲比)+E(上年度药品欠缺量)—F(本年度末药品预测库存量)。结果对公式中的6个参数作详细分析,以历年浙江省抗病毒治疗人数作为依据,预测2012年和2013年在治病人数分别为4 000例和5 600例。预计2013年齐多夫定(AZT)、司他夫定(D4T)、替诺福韦(TDF)的使用比例分别是60%、30%、10%,合计为100%;拉米夫定(3TC)的使用比例为100%;奈韦拉平(NVP)、依非韦伦(EFV)、克力芝(LPV/r)的使用比例分别是54%、40%、6%,合计100%。药品缓冲比以0.25计算。以最近3个季度的使用量,预测本年度药品的库存量。结论艾滋病药品年度测算需要以模型公式计算为主,根据历年病人数及药品需求数量,预测出模型公式中各参数值,同时与政策变化、经费提供等多个影响因素相结合,制定既能满足需求,又不造成浪费的艾滋病药品年度需求计划。Objective To explore the method of predicting annual demand for highly active antiretroviral therapy （HAART） drugs and analyze the impact factors. Methods The following equation was used： N（drug demand for the next year）=A（estimated HAART cases in the next year）× B（estimated proportion of a drug to the number of consumers ） × C（quarterly drug consumption） × 4 quarters × D（1＋ buffering percentage）× E（drug shortage in the previous year）-F（predicted drug stock by the end of the year）. Results By analyzing the six parameters in the equation on the basis of the previous years＇ number of HAART cases, it was found that the predicted HAART cases were 4 000 in 2012 and 5 600 in 2013. The drug use proportion of AZT, D4T and TDF was 60%, 30% and 10%, respectively, totally 100% ;the drug use proportion of 3TC was 100%. The drug use proportion of NVP, EFV and LPV/r was 54%, 40% and 6% ,respectively,totally 100%. Drug storage in the current year could be predicted on the basis of the quantity of the drug consumed in the latest three quarters. Conclusion The annual HAART drug demand can be predicted by the prediction equation based on number of human immunodefcienay virus/acquired immunodeficienay syndrome（HIV/AIDS） cases and quantity of drugs to be consumed in combination with policy adjustment and funding, so that the annual drug supply plan could meet the demand and avoid potential waste.

关 键 词：艾滋病 抗病毒药品 年度需求计划 预测 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]