基于主成分分析法的重庆市旅游业发展潜力评价  

A PCA-Based Evaluation of Tourism Development Potential in Chongqing

作　　者：杨晓霞[1] 田盛圭[2] 向旭[3] 宗会明[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]成都理工大学传播科学与艺术学院,成都610059 [3]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第4期111-117,共7页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41001102)

摘　　要：重庆市旅游业发展潜力评价有助于正确认识重庆市旅游业的发展态势,明确其发展定位和思路,由此构建了由旅游业发展支持力和旅游业现实发展力2个子系统组成的旅游业发展潜力评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法对重庆市旅游业发展潜力进行了评价,并借助强与弱指数及平均排名对评价结果进行了分析.结果表明:①从强与弱指数来看,重庆市1小时经济圈的旅游业发展支持力强于现实发展力,发展潜力最大;渝东南地区的旅游业发展支持力与现实发展力相当,但都低于全市的平均水平,发展潜力较弱;渝东北地区的旅游业现实发展力超过支持力,进一步发展空间较小,发展潜力最弱.②利用平均排名指标,可以将重庆市40个区县划分为旅游业发展潜力大、潜力较大、潜力较小和潜力小4个区域.Evaluation of the tourism development potential of Chongqing will be conducive to correctly understanding the development trend, orientation and thinking of tourism of the city. In this paper, an evaluation index system of tourism development potential is constructed, which is composed of two subsystems, i. e. tourism supportiveness and realistic development ability. Then the tourism development po- tential is evaluated with principal component analysis （PCA） and the evaluation results are analyzed with the strong and weak index and the average ranking. The research indicates that according to the strong and weak index, Chongqing＇s one hour economic circle has the greatest tourism development potential, whose tourism development supportiveness is stronger than its reality development force; in the southeastern part of Chongqing the two indexes match each other and are lower than the city＇s average, and the northeastern of Chongqing has the weakest development potential, for its tourism development supportiveness is weaker than its reality development force, so its further development space is small. Based on the average ranking index, Chongqing＇s forty counties/districts are divided into four areas： the area with the greatest tourism development potential, the area with considerable tourism development potential, the area with small tourism development potential and the area with the smallest tourism development potential.

关 键 词：旅游业发展潜力 旅游业发展支持力 旅游业现实发展力 主成分分析法 重庆市 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]