货币政策预期研究  

A Research on the Expectation of Monetary Policy

作　　者：李少华[1] 宁薛平 

机构地区：[1]西北大学陕西,西安710069 [2]上海对外贸易大学,上海201620

出　　处：《西部金融》2013年第4期19-23,共5页West China Finance

基　　金：上海市教委重点学科建设项目的资助(项目编号:J51703)

摘　　要：本文对货币政策预期引导的理论基础进行了阐述,并建立模型对我国货币政策引导预期行为进行了实证分析。实证研究表明,我国公众产出和通胀预期对货币政策变动是敏感的,其中通胀预期对货币数量的敏感度大于利率;而央行的货币政策也对公众预期做出了反应,具有前瞻性。因此,现阶段应当完善基于存款准备金率平滑的货币数量动态微调政策为主,一年期存贷款利率平滑和公告操作相搭配的货币政策操作模式。The paper expatiates on the theoretical foundation of the expectation guide of the monetary policy and establishes the model, and makes an empirical analysis of the behavior of expectation guide of the monetary policy in China. The empirical study shows that the public output and inflation expectations are sensitive to changes in the monetary policy, and the sensitivity to the infla- tion expectations to the currency amount is greater than the interest rate, while the central bank＇s monetary policy also responds to public expectations and is forward-looking. Therefore, at this stage, the priority should be given to perfecting the policy of dynamic fine-tuning currency amount based on the deposit reserve smoothing, and the monetary policy operation mode of one-year deposit and lending interest rate smoothing and announcement operation are matched.

关 键 词：货币政策 预期引导 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]