经济行为主体通胀预期引导与管理——基于西安市的实证分析  

GuidanceandManagementoftheInflationExpectationsofEconomicBehaviorSubjects——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Xi 'an City

作　　者：李莉[1] 贺兆[1] 周丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行西安分行营业管理部,陕西西安710002

出　　处：《西部金融》2013年第4期42-47,共6页West China Finance

摘　　要：通胀预期虽然不必然导致通胀,但它却可以为通胀的发生创造条件。要有效治理通胀,必须要管理与引导好通胀预期。本文以西安市居民通胀预期调查数据为基础,利用时变参数法对居民通胀预期进行了度量,研究了居民通胀预期与真实通胀之间的关系、通胀预期的形成及其对实际产出的影响。在此基础上,探讨了当前我国进行通胀预期引导与管理的难点,结合国际通胀预期管理的实践经验,提出符合国情的通胀预期引导与管理的政策建议和具体措施。Although the inflation expectation does not necessarily lead to inflation, it might create conditions for the occurrence of inflation. To effectively control the inflation, the inflation expectation must be managed and guided properly. Based on the data from the survey on the inflation expectation of residents in Xi＇an city, using the method of time-varying parameter to measure the residents＇ the inflation expectation, the paper studies the relationship between the inflation expectation and the real inflation, the formation of in- flation expectations and its effects on actual output. On the basis of the above research, the paper explores the difficulties in current guidance and management of inflation expectation in China. And combined with the international practices and experiences, the paper puts forward policy suggestions and concrete measures which conform to China＇s situation of inflation expectations.

关 键 词：宏观经济 通货膨胀 预期管理 

分 类 号：F830.31[经济管理—金融学]