中国服务业能源消费碳排放量核算及影响因素分析  

Carbon Emissions Accounting and Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption of Service Industry in China

作　　者：王凯[1,2] 李娟[1] 唐宇凌[1] 刘浩龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南长沙410081 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第5期21-28,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目"湖南旅游景区低碳行为绩效及其影响因素研究"(编号:12YBB193);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)基金项目"我国气候变化国际谈判战略研究"(编号:2010CB955200)

摘　　要：随着第一、二产业节能减排潜力的快速释放及其节能减排成果边际递减效应日益明显,服务业成为我国节能减排亟需开拓的新领域。基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的碳排放因子与核算方法,估算了1995-2010年我国服务业能源消费与CO2排放量,并探讨其总体变化趋势;运用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)辨识与分解研究样本区间内影响我国服务业CO2排放变动的关键因素及其贡献值。结果表明:我国服务业能源消费主要依赖于石油、煤炭等高碳化能源燃料,CO2排放量总体上呈现出上升趋势;产业规模和人口效应是服务业CO2排放最为主要的增量因素,而能源利用效率和能源结构则是服务业CO2排放减量的最主要贡献因素;交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业是服务业CO2排放的主要部门。基于上述研究结论,指出我国服务业碳排放的调控重点和方向。With the rapid release of energy saving potential and the marginal decreasing effect of energy conservation and emissions reduction in primary and secondary industries, the service industry has become new energy saving fields much needed to be developed. Based on the carbon emissions coefficient and the accounting method of energy consumption recommended by the IPCC in the Guidelines for National Green Gas Inventories, this paper discusses the trend of energy consumption and CO2 emission of China＇s service industry during 1995 -2010, the key influencing factors and their contribution is also identified with Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）. Findings show that： the energy consumption of service industry relies highly on carbonation energy fuel such as petroleum and coal, and CO2 emissions generally shows a rising trend; The main factors that influence the increase in carbon emissions are industry scale and population effect, while factors of energy efficiency and structure are the most important decreasing factors; Transportation, storage, post and telecommunication are the main departments of service industry to release CO2. At last, the focus and direction of energy conservation and emissions reduction in the service industry are promoted.

关 键 词：服务业 能源消费 CO2排放 影响因素 对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI) 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]