中国区域间农村社会保障对居民消费的影响  

Impact of Inter-regional Rural Social Security on Rural Residents' Consumption Expenditure in China

作　　者：纪江明[1] 赵毅[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030 [2]四川大学公共管理学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第5期93-97,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:70832001);上海交通大学文科科研创新项目(编号:12QN12)

摘　　要：在对理论和经验研究进行述评的基础上,建立农村社会保障与居民消费支出之间的Panel Data模型,并运用4大区域农村社会保障与居民消费支出数据(1991-2008年)进行实证检验。结果显示,转型期农村社会保障对居民消费支出的影响程度存在明显的区域差异,具体来说,东部地区的农村社会保障系数为0.262,说明东部地区农村社会保障每增加1%,会促进居民消费支出增加0.262%;中部地区的农村社会保障系数为0.237;东北地区的农村社会保障系数为0.145;西部地区的农村社会保障系数为0.087,可见,东部地区的影响程度最大,西部地区最小。就其他解释变量来说,各地区的人均GDP对其居民消费支出均有显著的正向影响;东部地区的GINI系数对其居民消费支出有显著的负向影响,其他地区的GINI系数对其居民消费支出没有影响;东北地区、西部地区的城市化率对其居民消费支出均有显著的正向影响,而其他地区的城市化率对其居民消费支出没有影响。这些充分说明不同区域农村居民收入公平性、城市化进程、经济发展水平不同,对农村居民消费支出的影响也不同。本文还提出了如何因地制宜地发展农村社会保障,提高中西部贫困农村地区消费支出和生活水平的对策措施。Based on theoretical and empirical study, the paper establishes Panel Data Model to analyze the effect of rural social security on rural residents＇ consumption expenditure using the regional panel data of 1991 - 2008. The result shows that there is obvious regional disparity in the influence degree of rural social security per capita on household consumption expenditure per capita. Specifically, the rural social security coefficient in east region is 0. 262, where 1% increase of rural social security can increase 0. 262% of rural residents＇ expenditures on consumption. The rural social security coefficient in middle region is 0. 237, where 1% increase of rural social security can increase O. 237% of rural residents＇ expenditures on consumption. The rural social security coefficient in northeast region is 0. 145, where 1% increase of rural social security can increase 0. 145% of rural residents＇ expenditures on consumption. The rural social security coefficient in west region is 0. 087, where 1% increase of rural social security can increase 0. 087% of rural residents＇ expenditures on consumption. The influence degree of rural social security per capita on household consumption expenditure per capita in east region is the largest, the west region is the smallest. But the influencing effects are positive in all regions. As far as the other explanatory variables, the impact of GDP per capita on residents＇ consumption is significantly positive in all regions;the impact of Gini Coefficient on residents＇ consumption is significantly negative in east region, while this impact does not exist in other regions ; the impact of urbanization rate on residents＇ consumption is significantly positive in west region and northeast region, while this impact does not exist in other regions. Finally, this paper put forward the policy proposal to develop rural social security according to local conditions, and increase residents＇ standard of spending and living in rural areas.

关 键 词：转型期 农村社会保障 农村居民消费支出 区域差异 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学]