OECD国家人口转变与经济增长的关系研究  

The Influence of Demographic Transition on Economic Growth in OECD

作　　者：王颖[1] 倪超[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第5期106-112,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"劳动年龄人口需求变动与就业策略研究"(编号:09CRK004);北京市教育科学"北京市二;三产业对大学生就业吸纳能力的比较分析"(编号:ADA10098)

摘　　要：研究西方国家人口转变过程、分析其与经济发展的关系有助于我们在世界人口变迁和全球化的背景之下思考和评价中国的人口结构变化以及更深层次的人口问题。论文基于经济收敛理论构建了人口转变与经济发展的关系模型,选取1950-2009年26个OECD国家的面板数据,分别建立固定效应模型和随机效应模型,通过模型间与变量间的比较来考察人口结构因素对经济增长的影响。结果表明,劳动力人口增长率与总人口增长率之差与人均GDP增长率是显著的正向关系;少儿抚养比与人均GDP增长率的关系是显著的负向关系,而老年抚养比与人均GDP的关系是不显著的。总体而言,人口转变因素解释了人均GDP增长中的18.7%;论文同时考察了OECD国家人口转变的过程中不同的历史时期人口转变因素对经济增长的影响,研究发现1965-1985年这一期间人口转变因素对经济增长的贡献最大;而受二战后婴儿潮的影响,1950-1965期间,人口结构转变因素对经济增长的影响是负向的,这为中国应对人口结构变化、制定适当的人口政策提供了借鉴。Research and analysis on the western countries＇ demographic transition ＆ its relationship with economic development help us to think and evaluate the changes of the demographic structure as well as the population issues at a profound level in China on the context of the world demographic transition and globalization. Based on the economic convergence theory, this paper built the relational model of demographic transition and economic development. By selecting panel data of 26 OECD countries from 1950 to 2009, this paper built a fixed effect model and a random effect model respectively to examine the impact of demographic factors on economic growth by the comparison of models and variables. The results showed that the growth rate of per capita GDP had a significant positive relationship with the factor of the growth rate of the labor force minus the growth rate of the total population, a negative relationship with the children＇ s dependency ratio, but the relationship with the old dependency ratio is not significant. Overall, the factor of demographic transition explained 18.7% of the per capita GDP growth. This paper also examined the impact of the demographic transition on the economic growth in the process of population transition in different historical periods of the OECD countries. We found that the demographic transition made the greatest contribution to the economic growth from 1965 to 1985. And affected by the baby boom in the World War II from 1950 to 1965, the demographic transition had a negative effect on the economic growth which provided a historical reference to China to make the appropriate policy to respond to the demographic transition.

关 键 词：人口结构 经济增长 人口红利 OECD 少儿抚养比 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]