西部水电资源开发对县域产业结构的影响  

Impacts of Hydropower Resources Exploitation on the County's Industrial Structure in Western China

作　　者：李丹[1] 贺昌政[2] 刘玉峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学公共管理学院,四川成都610065 [2]四川大学商学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第5期149-156,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目"强制社会变迁背景下民族地区农户可持续生计发展研究"(编号:12YJA630056);国家自然科学基金项目"面向数据特点的客户价值区分集成模型研究"(编号:71071101);四川大学中央高校基本科研业务专项"贫困地区生态移民可持续生计发展研究"(编号skqy201309)

摘　　要：随着我国西部地区水电资源开发的深入,电站建设对区域生态、经济结构与社会环境的影响越来越明显。本文以大渡河流域的瀑布沟电站开发建设为例,运用GMDH和ARCH组合预测模型,分析了西部大开发十年来,水电资源开发对所在县域产业结构的动态影响。结果表明:水电建设投资对县域经济具有变革性影响,使地区经济呈现非连续性增长,改变着西部区域的工业化阶段。这种改变体现在传统的三大产业所受影响程度上,第二产业呈现出跨越式增长;服务业体现为平稳增长;原有的主导产业农业则表现为负增长。秉承和谐社会构建的原则,本文提出如下政策建议:加大西部资源所在地的经济补偿与民生建设,注重人力资本数量级的提升,强化项目扶持中的科技含量,改变经济增长方式,构建资源受益者与资源输出地之间的经济联动机制,从而有效地提升西部地区产业结构等级,为我国建成小康社会起到应有的推动作用。With the widening development of hydropower resources in the West of China, it has imposed more and more impacts on the regional ecology, industrial structure and social environment . This paper takes Pubugou Hydropower Plant construction as an example, combines the Group Method of Data Handling （ GMDH ） and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastieity Model （ ARCH ） into the forecast model, analyzes quantitatively how the regional industrial structure is influenced by hydropower exploitation during the Western Great Development. The results show that hydropower construction investment has transformative effects on county＇ s economy, promotes the local GDP to grow non-continuously, changes the local industrialization process. There are varied degree of impacts on difi^rent industrial sectors. The secondary industry is influenced significantly and presents as the great-leap-forward growth, the service industry is likely to increase stable, and the agriculture sector suffers negative effects. The feasible policy suggestion is also proposed according to principle of harmony society construction ： Coordinate the economic development and construction on of local people＇ s livelihood, promote the service industry, focus on the human capital development and enhance science ＆ technology in project support, build the long-term interest inter-linkage mechanism between the resource beneficiaries and resource output areas, optimize the local industrial structure constantly, accordingly promote the establishment of Chinese Well-off society in 2021.

关 键 词：产业结构 水电开发 县域经济 

分 类 号：TV-9[水利工程]