重大灾害对我国经济影响研究  

A Research on the Relationship between Chinese Catastrophes and Economy Increase

作　　者：陈春慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]南华工商学院国贸系,广东广州510720

出　　处：《清远职业技术学院学报》2013年第2期87-90,共4页Journal of Qingyuan Polytechnic

基　　金：广州市哲学社会科学发展"十二五"规划课题:重大灾害对广州经济影响和对策研究(11B75);广州市社科院和南华工商学院合作项目:广东省对外贸易结构升级机制研究(12KH02)部分研究成果

摘　　要：我国重大灾害频发,极大影响了社会和经济的发展。通过建立1949-2011年灾害频次和人均GDP的协整、ECM模型和脉冲模型,证明在我国现有防灾救灾体系下,重大灾害在长期、短期对我国经济增长具有不同的作用机制和贡献度。我国灾害防治要遵循重大灾害对经济的影响规律,建立科学、合理的减灾防灾体系,引入保险等工具管理重大灾害风险。Frequently happened catastrophes in China have made huge damage to people＇s life as well as the social economy increase. Co-integration, ECM and impulse models were adopted to mine the data of disaster frequency and GDP per capital in China from 1949 to 2011. Models showed that disasters had positive contributions to the economy increase either from the long term or from the short term. The catastrophe prevention system of China should obey the rules that catastrophes work on economy, thus to build a scientific and reasonable system. Financial tools, such as the insurance, could be brought into the catastrophe risk preventing system.

关 键 词：重大灾害 经济影响 经济增长 协整理论 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]