BT项目风险模糊综合评判理论及方法研究  

Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in BT Project Risk Decisions

作　　者：熊光红[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学建筑与土木工程学院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学水与发展研究院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2013年第2期270-273,278,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：西安科技大学青年培育基金资助项目(2009003)

摘　　要：BT模式是基础设施建设领域的一种新型项目管理模式,包含诸多环节,具有较大风险。通过分析BT项目风险特点,构造了BT项目风险评价指标,建立了风险模糊综合评价模型。利用专家调查和层次分析法及相关软件确定评价指标体系各指标权重,引入群组动态权重法计算各指标的风险评分,采用模糊综合评价方法及Matlab模糊工具箱完成多级模糊综合评判。以某BT项目为例进行实证分析,结果表明,模糊综合评判理论及方法科学合理且操作性强,评价方法简单易行,评价结果较为可信。Based on analyzing the characteristics of the BT project risk,the BT project risk evaluation system and the theory method of comprehensive evaluation were established. AHP was used to determine the weight of each index of the evaluation index system;and the group dynamic weight calculation method was introducted to calculate the risk score of each index. The Matlab fuzzy toolbox was used to complete the multi - level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. An empirical analysis of a BT project, for example, confirmed the validity of the theoretical methods and evaluation tools. The results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation could provide some reference data when the risk decision was carrying on.

关 键 词：BT项目 风险定量评价 模糊综合评判 

分 类 号：TU723[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]