通江河流域灾害性洪水灰预测  

Gray Predication for Flood Disasters in Tongjiang River Basin

作　　者：李建 

机构地区：[1]大唐四川川北电力开发有限公司,四川成都610091

出　　处：《红水河》2013年第2期56-58,63,共4页Hongshui River

摘　　要：通江河流域为巴河的主要支流,洪水具有陡涨陡落、峰高量大,历时短、过程尖瘦等山溪性洪水的显著特点。为了找到其发生的一般规律,文章选用了该流域两个不同水文站历史洪水统计资料分别生成了灰色预测模型。经过对生成模型的精度检验,最后选用了预测精度较高的灰色模型对流域的下次可能成灾时间进行了预测,达到了预期的效果并对流域的防灾减灾提供了有效支持。Tongjiang River is a main tributary of Ba River, which has obvious characteristics of mountain stream floods such as rapid rise and fall, great peak, large flood volume and short duration etc. The grey prediction models are constructed based on the statistical data of historical floods of two hydrological stations for the purpose of finding the occurrence regularity of floods. According to accuracy test, a grey model with preferable prediction accuracy is selected to predict the occurrence time of the coming flood, which provides effective support to the flood control works in the basin.

关 键 词：通江河流域 灾害性洪水 灰预测 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]