基于九寨沟区域时空负荷均衡的仿真研究  

A Simulation Study Based on the Regional Space-time Load Balancing of Jiuzhaigou

作　　者：戈鹏[1,2] 郑伟民[1] 肖雄辉[1] 邱厌庆[1] 任佩瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学工商管理学院,四川成都610064 [2]九寨沟风景名胜区管理局,四川九寨沟623402

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2013年第2期99-106,共8页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展(863计划)重大资助项目(2008AA04A107);国家自然科学基金重大国际合作资助项目(71020107027)

摘　　要：我国旅游业快速发展在巨大地推动地区经济发展的同时,也给生态环境、社会文化带来较大的负面影响。如何实现旅游业的经济效益、社会效益与生态效益的协调发展引起社会各界的关注。本研究在对九寨沟进行全面考查以及课题组前期工作的基础上,分析了旅游旺季景区内客流的时空变化特征,指出由于游客在时间和空间上的分布不均衡,导致各景点负荷率不均衡,使旅游和生态不能协调发展。因此,有必要设计合理的游客分流方案,实现景点负荷率的均衡。本研究基于最优调度假设基础上,通过仿真技术,模拟"五区分流"下不同分流方案中景点负荷率的波动情况,通过对比各方案下负荷率方差的情况,提出初始调度与稳态调度的概念,并采用静态分流与基于区域时空负荷率均衡动态分流相结合的策略。通过仿真模型验证该策略的分流效果,分析该策略的优点与不足,并提出下一步的研究思路。Although the tourism industry can promote economic development in China, the growth of the tourism industry may have negative impact on ecological environment and culture. Controversial issues about how to achieve the coordinated development of tourism＇s economic, social and ecological benefits have caused public attention. Based on a comprehensive research of Jiuzhaigou and previous works, this study analyzes spatial and temporal variation characteristics of scenic spot＇s passenger flow during the tourist season, and discovers that tourists＇ imbalanced distribution in time and space can cause the imbalance of various scenic spots＇ load factors and block the coordinated development of tourism and ecology. Therefore, to achieve the balance of scenic spots＇ load factor, it is necessary to design a reasonable scheme for tourists＇ diversion. Based on the optimal scheduling hypothesis and with the simulation technology, this study simulates scenic spot load factor＇s fluctuation situation of different tourists＇ diversion schemes under ＂five districts diversion. ＂ By comparing every scheme ＇ s situation of load factor＇s variance, this paper proposes initial scheduling and steady-state scheduling concepts. This paper adopts strategy that combines the static shunt with the dynamic shunt based on the balance of regional space-time load factor. Through the simulation model, the diversion result of this strategy is validated, the advantages and disadvantages of the strategy are analyzed, and next research ideas are also put forward. This paper is based on the ＂ Five Districts Diversion＂ of Jiuzhaigou, explores its impact on the attractions＇ load from different diversion programs through simulation techniques, and proposes future research idea. The analysis is based on the optimal scheduling assumption for optimal shunting results. Besides, we propose a network layer theory to avoid modeling the diversity of the paths of the 4＂ tourists. In addition, the capacity of attractions is not only de

关 键 词：九寨沟 五区分流 网络分层 区域时空负荷率 仿真 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]