ASD降尺度技术在东江流域气候变化研究中的应用  

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS GENERATED BY AUTOMATED STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING(ASD) TECHNIQUE IN THE DONGJIANG RIVER BASIN

作　　者：于群伟[1] 徐宗学[1] 李秀萍[1,2] 刘品[1] 李磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,水科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第2期132-138,共7页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划"973"项目(2010CB428402)

摘　　要：评估未来气候变化对水循环的影响对保护该地区水资源有着十分重要的意义.GCM是当前研究气候变化的重要工具.然而GCM分辨较低,难以直接应用到流域尺度.统计降尺度方法以其计算量小、易于操作等特点被广泛应用到气候变化研究中,弥补GCM在气候影响评价中的不足.本研究以东江流域为例,采用BCCR大气环流模式、ERA-40再分析资料和东江流域实测气象数据,应用ASD降尺度模型对该流域未来气候变化进行评估.研究结果表明,ASD模型对日最高气温、最低气温和平均气温的模拟较为准确,同时也能基本反映流域日降水的统计特征,由此生成的未来气候变化情景是可靠的.分析结果显示,东江流域未来时期(2046—2065)降水量呈减少趋势,其中夏季降水减少较为显著,冬季变化不明显;而最高、最低和平均气温较基准期均有所升高.Assessing the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle and water resource is significant for the management of water resource in the Dongjiang River basin. GCM （General Circulation Model） is an important technique for investigating climate change. However, it is difficult to apply GCM directly on the watershed scale due to its low resolution. Because of smaller computation load, statistical downscaling technique has been widely applied in studies on climate change. In this paper, Automated Statistical Downscaling （ASD） technique was applied to generate future climate change scenarios in the Dongjiang River basin. Data showed that daily precipitation, maximum, minimum and average air temperature were simulated satisfactorily by ASD. Therefore this method was reliable for generating future climate change scenarios. Overall, the annual average precipitation in the Dongjiang River basin shows a decreasing trend in the future （2046-2065）. There is a significant decreasing trend for annual average precipitation in summer, while in winter it changes insignificantly. The maximum, minimum and average air temperature in the Dongjiang River basin all show an increasing trend in the future.

关 键 词：气候变化 降尺度 ASD 东江 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]