国际货物贸易与入境旅游的关系及其溢出效应  

Study on the Overflow Effect of the International Goods Trade and Its Partnership with Inbound Tourism

作　　者：苏建军[1,2,3] 徐璋勇[1,2] 赵多平[4] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学中国西部经济发展研究中心,陕西西安710127 [2]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [3]运城学院经济管理系,山西运城044000 [4]宁夏大学资源环境学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2013年第5期43-52,共10页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41261028)资助~~

摘　　要：文章以分析国际货物贸易与入境旅游互动关系为基础,建立包含入境旅游、国际货物贸易、经济增长、人口规模和对外开放等变量在内的动态面板回归模型,利用1985～2009年中国与欧洲七国的国际货物贸易额与入境旅游人数的面板数据与时间序列数据,采用面板回归分析法、格兰杰因果法、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法,分析了进口贸易和出口贸易对入境旅游的相互关系及其溢出效应。结果表明:(1)1985～2009年以来,我国出口贸易和进口贸易与入境旅游增长存在显著的正相关关系;(2)出口贸易与入境旅游增长具有互为因果的相互推动效应,而进口贸易与入境旅游增长之间则只存在单向格兰杰因果关系;(3)入境旅游对出口贸易和进口贸易的增长反应强烈,且呈正向效应;(4)方差分解结果表明,进口贸易和出口贸易对入境旅游增长变动具有不同的贡献度。Since the reform and liberalization of the international goods trade in China,international trade has developed rapidly.While trade growth has not strengthened the economic connection with other countries,it has accelerated the development of China＇s inbound tourism.This study used a dynamic regression model to analyze the overflow effect of the international goods trade on trade-related variables such as international trade goods,inbound tourists,economic growth and population,as well as the partnership between the international goods trade and these variables.Furthermore,we also use regression methods,the Granger causality test,impulse response function,and variance decomposition to study the impact of international goods trade on the development of inbound tourism,adopting seven European countries as examples and using panel data from 1985 to 2009 in China.The results of this study were as follows： First,there is a complementary relationship between the international goods trade and inbound tourism from 1985 to 2009 in China.This clearly indicates that inbound tourism is positively affected by the development of the international goods trade.Second,export trade and inbound tourism have Granger causality relations with each other.Our results imply that there is a significant impact relationship between export trade and inbound tourism.In addition,a single-direction Granger causality relation is found between import trade and inbound tourism.Thus,import trade has a more obvious effect on inbound tourism development,but the effect of inbound tourism on import trade is limited.Finally,the impulse response function indicates that the international goods trade has a great effect on inbound tourism.This further confirmed that the growth of the international goods trade is a strong factor in the promotion of inbound tourism.Moreover,export trade and import trade have different contributions to the growth of inbound tourism.China is already the ＂world＇s factory＂,and the amount of export trade is enormous.Henc

关 键 词：国际货物贸易 入境旅游 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F591[经济管理—旅游管理] F746[经济管理—产业经济] F224