变参数McCallum规则对中国货币政策的适用性研究  

McCallum Rule Indicator and Chinese Monetary Policy practice

作　　者：杨柳[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2013年第3期45-51,共7页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：选取中国1994第1季度到2012年第3季度的数据作为样本,对经典的McCallum规则进行了理论回顾和实证模拟,在此基础上,逐步添加了汇率和外汇储备等因素,将固定系数的McCallum规则扩展为三个变参数的McCallum规则,并对扩展模型进行了估计。结果发现,中国的货币政策操作总体遵循McCallum规则,其原式可以用来衡量中国货币政策的松紧程度;汇率和外汇储备因素对基础货币的投放影响显著。This paper specifically for McCallum rule makes a theoretical review and an empirical study on quarterly data of 1994Q1 to 2012Q3 in China. The simulation results of classic McCallum rule show that the practice of Chinese monetary policy operation following McCallum rule in general. The standard McCallum rule can be used as an indicator for measuring the tightness of Chinese monetary policy. The estimation results of McCallum rule with variable parameters show that the variations of exchange rate and foreign - exchange reserves affect the growth of base money notably.

关 键 词：货币政策规则 McCallum规则 TAYLOR规则 变参数 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]