基于SD的煤炭企业煤层气发电项目的经济平衡性  

Analysis of economic balance of coalbed methane power projects based on system dynamics

作　　者：姜庆国[1,2] 穆东[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]东北林业大学工程技术学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第5期1207-1216,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金："中国工程科技中长期发展战略研究"联合基金(U0970144);国家自然科学基金(71132008);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(DL1 1BB16)

摘　　要：针对我国煤层气超标排放惩罚标准缺失及煤层气发电项目CDM权益模糊问题,运用系统动力学方法,建立了煤炭企业为主体的煤层气发电项目的经济平衡性模型.以寺河120MW煤层气发电项目为例,仿真了煤层气排空惩罚标准对煤炭企业经济平衡性的影响,及CDM权益对煤层气发电项目经济平衡性的影响.研究表明,煤层气排放的惩罚因子每提高1元/m^3,煤炭企业需要付出的成本增加1.43亿元;当煤层气排放惩罚因子提高至10元/m^3时,煤炭企业的利润率小于零;0.0574美元/m^3的CDM权益不能保证项目达到国内同行12%-15%、国外同行20%以上的利润率,应将上网电价从0.2754元/kWh调整至0.3130元/kWh和0.3482元/kWh.The description of the punishment for the enterprises who released excessive emissions of coalbed methane （CBM） was not well documented in China. In addition, it was unclear about the reasonable interests of CBM emissions reduction for the power projects who applied the clean development mechanism （CDM）. In this study, an economic balance model for CBM power projects headed by coal enterprises was established based on system dynamics. The Sihe 120MW CBM Power Project was used as a case study. We analyzed the impact of the punishment standard of CBM release on the economic balance of the coal enterprise, as well as the impact of the interests of CBM emissions reduction on the economic balance of the CBM power project. The results indicated that the cost of coal enterprises would increase 143 million Yuan if the punishment indicator of CBM emissions increased 1 Yuan per cubic meter. The profit would be zero when the punishment indicator of CBM emissions increased to 10 Yuan per cubic meter. It was also shown that the CBM power project cannot achieve the same profit level of 12% 15% as the domestic coal enterprises or the 20% profit rate as the foreign counterparts with 0.0574 dollar per cubic meter if only invested by the CDM. However, the objectives can be achievable if the network price of the plants can be increased from the current 0.2754 Yuan/kWh to 0.3130 Yuan/kWh and 0.3482 Yuan/kWh, respectively.

关 键 词：煤层气 发电项目 经济平衡性 系统动力学 寺河 

分 类 号：F224.5[经济管理—国民经济]