大庆市种植业劳动力需求预测  

The Forecast of Labor Demand of Crop Farming in Daqing

作　　者：张帆[1] 王福林[1] 吴昌友[1] 张勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学工程学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《农机化研究》2013年第6期48-50,54,共4页Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅项目(11542150)

摘　　要：目前,农村剩余劳动力的问题日益凸显,合理、准确预测未来几年的种植业劳动力需求是估算剩余劳动力的基础,且对发展农业生产和解决"三农"问题意义重大。为此,首先建立了劳动力需求关系模型,运用专家预测法对大庆市未来10年的农作物总播种面积进行预测,用S曲线的趋势外推预测方法对机械化程度进行预测,并采用发放调查问卷的方式估算了劳均可负担耕地面积。最后,得到未来10年大庆市种植业劳动力的需求量,以期对大庆市的农业经济发展起到参考作用。With the rapid development of Agricultural,the problem of rural surplus labor emerged as a major issue.Forecasting the demand of crop farming in following several years is the foundation of estimating the rural surplus labor.It is of great significance to develop agricultural production and resolve ＂San Nong＂problems.It firstly gives the mathematical model of the demand of labour.Forcasting the cultivated area of the crops of Daqing in the fixed assets with application expert of assessment method.This paper adopts the prediction models to forecast the change trend of the agricultural comprehensive mechanization degree.The burden arable land of per labor were surveyed by means of questionnaire.Finally the paper got the labor demand of Crop farming in Daqing in the following several years in order to provide the reference in the development of Agricultural in Daqing.

关 键 词：劳动力需求 种植业 预测 大庆 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]