不同季节划分尺度下巢湖流域气候变化趋势分析  

ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TREND OF THE CHAOHU BASIN DIVIDED BY DIFFERENT SEASON SCALES

作　　者：陈实[1] 高超[1,2] 黄银兰[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241000 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008 [3]浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,浙江金华321000

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2013年第5期582-587,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101035);教育部高校博士学科点专项科研基金(20113424120002);湖泊与环境国家重点实验室开放课题(2010SKL015);安徽省教育厅自然科学重点项目(KJ2010A154);安徽师范大学校级创新基金项目(2010CXJJ17)

摘　　要：根据现代气候学、候平均气温及气象学上的季节划分等3种不同的季节划分方法,利用国家气候中心发布的1961～2010年气象台站观测资料插值格点化数据集(CN05.1),选取巢湖流域内及其周边的26个格点气温、降水量资料,运用年代际变化、距平、回归分析以及Mann-Kendall方法,分析比较巢湖流域近50a三类季节的气温、降水量变化趋势和特征。结果表明:3种方法划分出不同季节,分析温度和降水的变化趋势时,它们各自的结果有所差异,甚至差别相当明显,运用气象学季节划分方法就成功地推翻了全球变暖的说法。所以在全球变暖的大背景下,分析季节的气候变化应考虑每年实际气温,从多尺度进行分析,才能得到准确而又科学的结果。Global climatic change is one of the most complex challenges to human today, and global environmental change has a huge impact on social economic activities,agriculture environment and the ecological system. IPCC fourth climatic change assessment report said that the global surface temperature rose by 0.74 between 1906 and 2005, and the temperature increased significantly. China average surface temperature rises significantly in recent 100 years, and the warming range is about 0.5--0.8. The temperature rise directly leads to the change of the length of four seasons. The change of the starting date of four seasons and the change of the temperature is consistent. The different methods of warming statistics leads directly to the inconsistency of the amplitude of the warming. According to three different season dividing methods,such as the division of season by modern climatology, season average temperature and meteorology, the author made use of the observational data based on more than 2400 ground meteorological offices and stations issued by the national climate center,and established a set of data set （CN05.1） in grids of 0.25×0.25 longitude resolution, and then selected 26 lattice point temperature precipitation data in the Claohu basin and its surrounding between 1961 and 2010. The author also applied the interdecadal change, anomaly,regression analysis and Mann-Kendall method to analyze and compare the trends and characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes of three seasons in recent 50 years. The result showed that,to different seasons divided by three methods,when the change trend of temperature and precipitation was analyzed, the result of theirs was different, even quite obviously different. From the three different interdecadal change of spring air temperature in nearly 50 years, the air temperature of meteorological spring and Houwen spring was 0.9 higher than the temperature of climatic spring, and the temperature change of the spring analyzed by climatic spring was different. The compa

关 键 词：季节划分 气候变化 趋势分析 巢湖流域 

分 类 号：S161.22[农业科学—农业气象学] S161.6[农业科学—农业基础科学]