基于BER和CTMC的航天器发射组织过程可靠度模型  

Scheduler reliability model of spacecraft launch based on BER and CTMC

作　　者：董学军[1,2] 白国庆[1] 陈英武[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073 [2]酒泉卫星发射中心,甘肃酒泉732750

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2013年第2期46-51,共6页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971131;71071156)

摘　　要：在航天器发射工程中,存在组织过程可靠性评估难以量化的问题。基于航天器发射组织过程的时间特性呈现多个子过程并发执行且子过程具有Markov性和齐次性的特点,使用连续时间Markov链(CTMC)建立多吸收态的组织过程可靠度模型,利用互模拟等价关系(BER)简化组织过程的状态空间,并进一步给出各种状态转移率和组织过程可靠度计算方法。最后,通过数据分析说明模型在航天器发射工程进度计划评估中的作用和意义。In spacecraft launch engineering, it is very difficult to quantify reliability of implementation process. In terms of the peculiarities which the reliability of implementation process presents, such as many sub-processes having concurrency and every sub-process having the Markovian property and homogeneity, this research presents a model of implementation processes reliability with multi-absorbing state by utilizing the model of continuous-time Markov chain （CTMC） , which simplifies the state space of the implementation processes reliability through the use of bisimulation equivalence relation. Moreover, the calculation method for various state transition rates and implementation process reliability is also presented. Finally, the simulation ease by engineering data verifies the role and significance of the model in the assessment schedule of spacecraft launch engineering.

关 键 词：航天器发射 互模拟等价关系 连续时间Markov链 过程可靠度 

分 类 号：V554[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]