群体专家按轮讨论与自由讨论的观点动力学演化比较  

Opinion dynamic evolution:a comparison of group experts rounds’ discussions with free ones

作　　者：苏炯铭[1] 刘宝宏[1] 李琦[1] 马宏绪[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学机电工程与自动化学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2013年第2期52-56,共5页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60704038)

摘　　要：针对群体专家在集体讨论中的按轮讨论和自由讨论的观点动力学演化过程,采用计算机仿真实验的方法对两种模型结果进行了分析和比较。统计结果表明在相同的初始条件下,自由讨论模型采用权威专家优先,然后按观点累积变化最大者优先的发言顺序规则生成的平均观点簇数更少,并且发现15轮以后的讨论发言对各项指标改进的影响作用不大。由于自由讨论是依次串行发言,发言时间效率较低,因此实际讨论方式选择时,当人数较少,时间充裕时,宜采用自由讨论的方式,反之则宜采用按轮讨论的方式。The opinion evolution results of both dynamic models of group experts round discussion and free discussion in collective discussion are analyzed and compared by computer simulation. Statistical results show that under the same initial conditions, the model of free discussion using the speech sequence rule of authoritative experts first and then experts with the maximum of opinion cumulative change first has less average opinion clusters. It also finds that discussions after 15 rounds have less improved impact on indicators. As the free discussion is followed by serial speeches that are less efficient, in the actual selection of the mode of discussion, when there are fewer experts and plenty of time, it should use free discussion, and vice versa it should adopt discussion by round.

关 键 词：按轮讨论 自由讨论 观点动力学 仿真 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]