金融危机下中国对欧盟农产品出口变化的成因分析  

Cause Analysis of Changes of Chinese Agricultural Product Exports to EU under the Financial Crisis

作　　者：张金艳[1] 范雯[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易研究中心,广东广州510420

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2013年第5期17-26,共10页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划项目(GD11CYJ15)

摘　　要：欧盟是中国第二大农产品出口市场,金融危机导致了中国对欧盟农产品出口呈现新变化。文章采用UNCOMTRADE有关数据,基于"贸易引力模型"和"恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)",对金融危机前后的中国对欧盟农产品出口变化的成因进行了实证分析。结果显示,欧盟农产品进口需求变化、欧盟农产品进口依存度及人民币实际有效汇率对中国农产品出口产生显著影响。金融危机后,中国对欧盟农产品出口整体竞争力的提高和适应欧盟进口需求结构变化,是推动中国对欧盟农产品出口恢复性增长的关键因素。EU is the second largest agricultural product export market of China, but the situation of Chinese agricultural product exports to EU is experiencing a new change because of the financial crisis. This paper uses the ＂Gravity Model＂ and the ＂constant market share model （CMS Model）＂ to make an empirical analysis of the cause of changes of Chinese agricultural exports to EU before and after the crisis. The result shows that the demand change of EU＇s agricultural product imports, the dependence of its agricultural product imports, and RMB real effective exchange rates significantly affect Chinese agricultural product exports. The rising overall competitiveness of Chinese agricultural product exports to EU and the fitting to the structural change of EU market demands are the key factors of promoting the growth of agricultural product exports to EU.

关 键 词：农产品 欧盟 出口 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]